Using Multiple High-Resolution Datasets to Benchmark the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) for Renewable Resource Assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift towards a renewable energy system to reduce the climate impacts of fossil fuels. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate long-term planning of renewable energy investments; however, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research utilizes multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (NARRM) for wind and solar energy predictions. Data from present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared to reported utility-scale production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). E3SMv2-NARRM data is also evaluated against the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), which are considered benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Model evaluation focuses on regional and seasonal variability in wind and solar energy predictions, and NREL’s System Advisor Model (PySAM) is used to generate energy production estimates from meteorological data. We analyze the strengths and weaknesses of E3SMv2-NARRM production estimates, focusing on regional biases and seasonal accuracy. Furthermore, we discuss the potential downstream impacts of climate model performance on long-term energy infrastructure planning, such as capacity expansion.

This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and supported by LDRD project 23ERD010, “Forecasting and mitigating the impacts of climate change on renewable energy resources and grid reliability”. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. LLNL-ABS-867851.