Current National Weather Service Considerations for Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

“A perfect forecast on its own cannot meet the mission of the weather service.” It is the interpretation and communication of the forecast that will provide decision-makers with the context they need to protect life, livelihoods, and property to become a Weather Ready Nation. One of the main long-term strategic goals of the National Weather Service (NWS) is to assess and communicate probabilistic forecast information to partners to assist in such critical decisions. This social science research explores how forecasters in various offices and regions of the NWS currently convey the uncertainty of the forecast and the array of potential forecast outcomes. Semi-structured interviews with 14 NWS forecasters representing each region of the NWS and several National Centers were conducted and analyzed. The interviews revealed layers of organizational processes that contribute to the agency’s contemporary probabilistic communication strategies, including tactics for identifying probability information valuable to partners and navigation of practical and operational challenges. The presentation will go into these key themes in detail. The study reflects the organizational processes undertaken by a primarily physical science-based agency to accomplish a multidisciplinary goal. This analysis provides a foundation for evaluating these practices as an integrated system and highlights areas needing further development.