WAFNWP Dependence of Hurricane Forecasts on the Spectral Representation of Cumulus Convection

This study examines the dependence of the hurricane track and intensity forecasting on cloud types using Chikira-Sugiyama with Arakawa and Wu scale awareness (CSAW). An ensemble type run using different initial conditions for the track and intensity of hurricane Ian from CSAW, Relaxed Arakawa and Schubert (RAS), and Simplified AS (SAS) cumulus parameterizations are compared and found distinct difference between the scheme using spectrum of cloud types (CSAW and RAS) and one single plum (SAS). A typical initial condition is then used to repeat the results of the ensemble runs, which is used by CSAW to study the dependence of hurricane track and intensity on the spectral representation of cumulus convection. In CSAW, A spectrum of clouds is determined by specifying the minimum (0 m s^-1) and maximum cloud base velocity. The preliminary results show that a weak spectrum of convective clouds usually produces strong hurricanes moving north-west. The track and intensity are usually closely connected with the kinetic energy power spectrum, potential vorticity, and steering winds and correlated to the spectral representation of the deep convections.