Unified Forecast System (UFS)-based Operational Tropical Cyclone Modeling at NOAA's National Weather Service National Center for Environmental Prediction (NWS/NCEP)

Regional Hurricane modeling systems developed and implemented into operations at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) are used for tropical cyclone forecast guidance in all ocean basins of the world. A UFS (Unified Forecast System) -based Hurricane and Analysis Forecast System version 1 (HAFS v1) was implemented at NWS/NCEP operations in June 2023 and was subsequently upgraded in July 2024 with HAFS v2. HAFS is the first UFS community based regional model implemented at NWS/NCEP operations. Development of HAFS addresses Section 104 (Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program or HFIP) of the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017. As an application based on the Unified Forecast System (UFS), HAFS exemplifies streamlining of the model development and transition processes through broad and active collaborations between research and operational communities. Operational HAFS versions apply the latest science innovations and new computational methods developed for hurricane modeling supported by HFIP, hurricane supplemental projects, and UFS R2O projects.

In this presentation, operational configuration details of HAFS v2 are highlighted along with its performance for the 2024 season in comparison to other dynamical models at NWS/NCEP. Potential plans for the 2025 season and near-term future upgrades (and beyond) will also be discussed.