Simulation and Evaluation of NOAA Next Generation Microwave Satellite Observation System with the ECMWF EDA Method

Microwave sounders like the QuickSounder and Sounder for Microwave Brightness and Analysis (SMBA) instruments will be launched as future ATMS follow-on missions in the NOAA’s Near Earth Orbit Network (NEON) Program. As an international collaborative effort between the University of Maryland Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (UMD/CISESS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the potential NWP benefits of these future microwave sounders are being evaluated using an Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) approach. The EDA method for assessing new observations provides a theoretical estimate of the expected reduction in analysis and short-range forecast uncertainty, as a result of assimilating the new data. A reduction of the spread resulting from additional observations used is hence an indication of beneficial impact from these observations. This study considers the impact of such instruments at both 13:30 and 5:30 orbits, and relate this impact to that of the microwave sounders on the current heritage Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) as well as that of ATMS.

Following the previous EPS-Sterna EDA study by Lean et al. (2023), a framework has been developed for the flexible simulation and assimilation of microwave sounders on QuickSounder, an ATMS at 5:30 orbit that will fly on a small satellite in 2026. The EDA analysis shows that QuickSounder significantly impacts a range of atmospheric variables, including temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and wind, evidenced by reductions in EDA spread. The impact is similar to or slightly larger than the benefit currently achieved with real data from the remaining MW-sounding instruments on the POES satellites (NOAA-15, 18, and 19), and the largest impact is achieved when QuickSounder and POES satellites are used together. In addition, we also evaluate the benefit of new capabilities from SMBA, which include the impact of measuring radiation at frequencies not previously covered by heritage instruments. An overview of this project and the detailed impact studies will be presented in this meeting.