Impacts of Cold Pool Strength on Tornado Production in Quasi-Linear Convective Systems

In recent years, several studies have explored relationships between cold pool strength and tornado production in quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). Many of these studies were limited to field projects and thus generally exhibit a small sample size. Additionally, synoptic, geographic, seasonal, and diurnal patterns between cold pool strength and QLCS tornado production have not yet been examined. To bridge this gap, this study investigates cold pool strength within dozens of recent severe tornadic and nontornadic QLCSs in the central and eastern United States. Cold pool strength was quantified by the equivalent potential temperature and virtual potential temperature perturbations from the base state using one-minute METAR observations. Each QLCS was categorized based on the number and strength of tornadoes produced and cold pool strength was correlated to tornado production. Relationships between cold pool strength and tornado production were then classified based on the synoptic pattern, season, region, and time of day. By identifying such patterns and relationships in tornadic QLCS cold pool strength, this study aims to improve predictions of potentially tornadic QLCSs.