The MPAS model has demonstrated significant potential during the recent NOAA Spring Forecast Experiments. It delivered storm forecasts comparable to the current NOAA operational regional model, HRRRv4, when initialized from HRRRv4 or RRFSv1 analyses. Integrating a data assimilation component and coupling MPAS with advanced GSL physics are expected to yield substantial improvements in storm forecasting capabilities.
The JCSDA JEDI system is a cutting-edge, unified data assimilation framework that delivers advanced data assimilation techniques, excellent interoperability, and robust scalability. This system is expected to enhance the overall performance and accuracy of the RRFS system.
Efforts have been made to establish a cycling MPAS+JEDI framework, based on the MPAS model and the JEDI-powered RDASApp. This framework is designed to facilitate scientific advancements in both modeling and data assimilation research. Three different domain and grid configurations—Conus 12km, Conus 3km, and Atlantic 12km—are now available to support various applications, enabling scientific progress on multiple fronts.
The experiments can be conducted in both real-time and retrospective modes, allowing for comprehensive testing and validation of the RRFS system. Efforts have been devoted to testing, tuning, and improving the data assimilation and model configurations. Preliminary results from these efforts will be presented at the conference, showcasing the potential of the new RRFS system to deliver superior storm forecasting and improve our understanding of the atmosphere. These advancements represent a good step in operational weather prediction and scientific research, contributing to the overall NOAA mission to provide accurate and timely weather forecasts and warnings.
List of acronyms:
NSF: National Science Foundation
NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research
MMM: Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology
JCSDA: Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
GSL: Global Systems Laboratory
NWS: National Weather Service
NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction
EMC: Environmental Modeling Center
CIRES: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
RRFS: Rapid Refresh Forecast System
MPAS: Model for Prediction Across Scales
JEDI: Joint Effort for Data-assimilation Integration
RDASApp: App for the RRFS Data Assimilation System
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