In this talk, we will mainly focus on the key elements of the DestinE system that ECMWF is delivering together with its 90 partners across Europe: the Digital Twin Engine and the first two high-priority digital twins, which are at the heart of the DestinE system, reflecting both on the key achievements so far and the next steps.
Digital twins of the Earth system can represent a game-changer as they provide an interactive capability to better understand how the Earth system will evolve following different scenarios, and to assess the implications of climate change and the impacts of extreme events, from the global scale to local scales. They can thus complement existing capabilities at national, European, international level and support adaptation policies and the implementation of the European Green Deal.
DestinE's digital twins, as well as the artificial intelligence (AI) activities which are now ramping up in the inititiative, would not be possible without the world-leading facilities of the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking. DestinE is pioneering running the first complex Earth system applications for extreme weather events and climate change on Europe’s first pre-exascale computers: LUMI, run by CSC – IT Center for Science in Finland (no. five in TOP 500); Leonardo, run by Cineca in Italy (no. seven in TOP 500); and MareNostrum 5, run by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) in Spain (no. eight in TOP 500). It is also making use of medium-sized EuroHPC facilities, such as Meluxina in Luxembourg.
In partnership with EuroHPC, DestinE:
- sets up a unique, bespoke, cutting-edge high-resolution simulation capability allowing the testing of hypotheses and scenarios regarding the evolution of the Earth system from days to decades ahead
- provides globally consistent Earth system and impact-sector information at scales of a few km, where the impacts of many extreme events and climate change are observed
- establishes new end‑to‑end pathways of interacting with digital twin data
- fosters an AI‑enabled digital ecosystem supporting decision-making.
The digital twins of DestinE replicate different aspects of the Earth system. The initial high-priority digital twins on weather-induced extremes and climate change adaptation are highly accurate replicas of the Earth system, simulating the system behaviour at the scales where extreme events happen, and many of the effects of climate change are felt. They combine several Earth system models and observations together with the most advanced digital technologies, machine learning and artificial intelligence. They are integrated and interoperable with applications for the impact sectors most affected by climate change and extreme events.
The Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) is a step change in the way information on climate change is provided. The Climate DT aims to produce operationally multi-decadal climate projections, both regularly and on-demand, at km-scales. These projections – from global to local scale, for several decades ahead – will enable decision-making in support of climate change adaptation and the implementation of the European Green Deal. They will provide climate information with local granularity globally.
The Weather-Induced Extremes Digital Twin (Extremes DT) is a tool that enables the prediction of extreme weather events and their impacts two to four days in advance. It achieves this by using bespoke high-resolution numerical simulations (km-scales globally, sub-km-scale locally) and their fusion with Earth system observations.
To efficiently deploy and embed the different Earth system digital twins within the overall DestinE system, the Digital Twin Engine brings together the software infrastructure necessary for extreme-scale simulations, data fusion, data handling, and machine learning. It provides a common system approach to a unified orchestration of Earth system digital twins and allows users to interact with them and their data in novel ways.
In the first phase of the initiative (december 2021 - june 2024) efforts focused on building the Digital Twins and the Digital Twin Engine, deploying them on LUMI, the first pre-exascale supercomputer in Europe, and demonstrating their capabilities at scale for example by producing the first global multi-decadal climate projections at 5 km across Earth system components.
In the second phase of the initiative (june 2024- june 2026), efforts at ECMWF and its partner institutions will continue to focus on the two digital twins and the Digital Twin Engine. The overarching aim is to transition the Climate and Extremes DTs towards operational-level execution. This will be achieved through evolving the configuration developed in phase 1.
The Digital Twin Engine will also be further evolved with a focus on scalability, portability and interoperability. A key area will be the transition of end-to-end workflows of the digital twins on EuroHPC towards an operational-level execution.
An important aspect of phase 2 is the intensification of the use of recent game-changing breakthroughs in machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI). In particular, ECMWF together with its partners will lead developments towards a machine-learning-based Earth system model that will support quantifying uncertainties of the Earth system digital twins and enhancing their interactivity capabilities.
Supplementary URL: https://destine.ecmwf.int/
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