The March 20th, 2024 Wildfire Outbreak in the Shenandoah Valley and Eastern West Virginia

On March 20, 2024, a unique combination of extreme wind and extremely dry conditions led to a rare outbreak of wildfires from the Shenandoah Valley into eastern West Virginia. As a result, these wildfires burned just over 17,000 acres and damaged 60 structures in West Virginia and Virginia, with damage totals in the millions of dollars.

Given the scarcity of fire weather events of this magnitude in this region of the country, this presentation will explain why these conditions occurred, and how conditions were nearly perfect for a historic wildfire outbreak. This presentation looks to draw parallels to local research from the National Weather Service (NWS) State College Weather Forecast Office (WFO), which discussed setups favorable for what they termed “dew point bombs”, or rapid drops in dew points during periods of peak boundary-layer mixing. Both forecast and observed soundings were used to assess the threat for not only strong winds, but also the potential for a dew point bomb event. Several tools from the Storm Prediction Center RAP mesoanalysis page were also used to visualize a better spatial representation of the environment across the region that afternoon. Finally, we will look at surface observations, to include wind and relative humidity through the event and fuel moisture observations leading into the event. Satellite data will also be used to illustrate fire detection methods throughout the event as well.

In the end, this event perfectly fit the mold of a “dew point bomb” event, showing the utility of NWS State College WFO’s local research to the broader Mid-Atlantic area. The final aspect of this presentation will look to highlight the Decision Support Service efforts leading into this event, as well as during and after the event.