Development of EPS Fields for Aviation by Meteorological Service of Canada

The Meteorological Service of Canada has advanced its aviation meteorology capabilities through the development and implementation of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) fields tailored for aviation applications. These advancements address critical service delivery gaps, particularly in remote and challenging operational environments such as those encountered during helicopter search and rescue missions and Canadian Armed Forces support in response to domestic natural disasters.

Key features of Canada's Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) include comprehensive coverage of North America with a 10 km model resolution. REPS runs four times daily and extends forecast guidance up to 72 hours beyond the valid Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) period, crucial for effective aviation planning and operational decision-making.

The EPS fields encompass a range of probabilistic outputs essential for aviation planning and safety:

• Probability forecasts for Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) ceiling and visibility conditions,
• Exceedance probabilities for wind gust and strength thresholds,
• Probability wind roses tailored for airport locations,
• Cross wind strength probabilities.

These outputs are presented through various formats including point-specific matrices, area probability maps, and are accessible globally via Web Map Service (WMS) integration using the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). This accessibility enhances usability for diverse aviation stakeholders requiring detailed, probabilistic guidance for flight planning and operational safety management.

In summary, the integration of EPS fields into operational practices represents a significant advancement in aviation meteorology, providing decision-makers with enhanced confidence through probabilistic forecasts that extend beyond traditional TAF horizons. This capability is pivotal in supporting safe and efficient aviation operations across Canada's diverse and geographically challenging landscapes.