Integrating the Global Hydro Intelligence Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Subsystem into 14th Weather Squadron Climate Operations

The United States Air Force’s 14^th Weather Squadron (14 WS) provides climate information, data, and services to help military and intelligence forces understand and plan for climate impacts around the world. The 14 WS began issuing a subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) outlook to support operations in eastern Europe prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A major environmental concern in this region is the large-scale mud conditions that typically occur during the fall and spring. In addition to atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, land surface variables including soil temperature and moisture are necessary to provide skillful predictions of the ground state. To address this need, the 14 WS has worked with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to integrate the Global Hydro Intelligence Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (GHI-S2S) subsystem into operations. The GHI-S2S subsystem uses meteorological forcings from seasonal climate models as input to simulate land surface and hydrologic processes on the S2S scale. This information is used to enhance the 14 WS’s existing S2S outlook products by providing finer scale environmental intelligence predictions of the freeze and thaw cycles in eastern Ukraine. It provides key information about ground conditions necessary to answer operational impact questions, such as likelihood of mud. Examples of Fall 2023 and Fall 2024 mud season outlooks are presented, along with assessments of model skill and verification. With ongoing collaborations with the NASA Hydrologic Sciences Lab, the 14 WS is preparing to expand use of the GHI-S2S subsystem to support military and intelligence operations globally.