38CVC Extreme Weather Events and School Closures: A Study of Climate Change Effects

As the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased as a result of climate change, their impacts on urban systems, particularly educational infrastructure, have become more pronounced. According to the World Meteorological Organization, from 1970-2019, the number of natural disasters increased five-fold (WMO 2015). A 10-year-old in 2024 “will experience twice as many wildfires and tropical cyclones, three times more river floods, four times more crop failures, five times more droughts, and 36 times more heat waves” than a child born in 1960 on a 3°C global warming pathway (Thiery et al. 2021, 158-159). These escalating climate hazards have significant consequences for education, as school closures disrupt learning, exacerbate inequalities, and strain the resources of already vulnerable communities.

Research has shown that frequent school closures lead to a decline in academic performance (Marcotte and Hemelt 2008), and impacts on student learning are more pronounced in disadvantaged students, widening the achievement gap (Bacher-Hicks, Goodman, and Mulhern 2021; Dorn et al. 2021; Kuhfeld et al. 2020). Despite these known impacts, there is a lack of comprehensive data on how climate change is directly influencing the frequency of weather-related school closures, particularly in urban areas.

This pilot study addresses this gap by investigating the relationship between climate variability and weather-related school closures in two distinct urban environments: Zeeland, Michigan, and Des Moines, Iowa. It also utilizes comprehensive prolonged school closure data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

This research aims to determine whether there has been a significant increase in school closures due to extreme weather over the past several decades and to understand the metrics and decision-making processes that school systems use to determine closures. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining a statistical analysis of historical weather-related school closure data (to include late starts or early dismissals) with qualitative insights from educational policy and climate research.

Although historical data on weather-related school closures is limited, Zeeland Public Schools, a suburb of Grand Rapids, Michigan, has maintained a history of school closings and delays from 1977-2021. Data from more recent years was gathered by analyzing the school district’s Facebook page. Des Moines Public Schools, the largest school district in Iowa, maintains records from 1972 onwards. The CDC dataset lists school closures lasting more than five school days within public K-12 school districts and individual school closures in the United States from August 1, 2011 – June 30, 2019.

A statistical analysis of this time-series data using the Mann-Kendall test suggests that weather-related school closures have increased over the past several decades. Specifically, in Des Moines, there was a 115.38% increase in the average number of weather-related closures from the period 1973-2000 to 2001-2024. This increase was highly statistically significant (τ_b = 0.313, p = 0.002). Comparing the number of days with closures from 1973-2000 and 2001-2024, there was a 115.38% increase.

In Zeeland, there was a 47.64% increase in the average number of weather-related closures from the period 1978-2000 to 2001-2024. Though this increase was not statistically significant (τ_b = 0.193, p = 0.068), the 2019-2020 school year experienced only one weather-related school closure day since the school system closed in early spring due to the Covid-19 pandemic and is thus an outlier. From 1977-1987, public schools in Zeeland experienced disruptions due to weather for an average of 3.45 days each year. By comparison, from 2014-2024, schools were closed as a result of inclement weather an average of 5.2 days.

While few school districts keep detailed records of school closures over time, these two school systems serve as an initial dataset for exploring broader national trends. It is clear from an analysis of the CDC data that prolonged school closures due to extreme weather events have increased nationwide. While the CDC dataset only covers a limited range of dates, there was a significant increase in the number of prolonged school closures due to floods (τ_b = 0.6170, p = 0.04) as well as wildfires (τ_b = 0.593, p = 0.04). Furthermore, of the 2259 unplanned Prolonged School Closures in the United States listed in the dataset, 1892 (83.75%) were due to weather or natural disasters, matching previous research on school closures (see Wong et al. 2014).

This research contributes to the broader understanding of how climate change is reshaping urban systems, with a specific focus on educational infrastructure. By quantifying the impact of extreme weather on school closures and demonstrating its increase over time, this study highlights the need for cities to develop more resilient education systems that can adapt to the increasing unpredictability of climate change. It further highlights the lack of data available to researchers and policymakers. Establishing comprehensive records at the district or state level would not only enhance our ability to track trends over time but would also inform more effective policy decisions to mitigate the educational impacts of climate variability.

References

Bacher-Hicks, A., Goodman, J., & Mulhern, C. (2021). Inequality in household adaptation to schooling shocks: Covid-induced online learning engagement in real time. Journal of Public Economics, 193, 104345.

Dorn, E., Hancock, B., Sarakatsannis, J., & Viruleg, E. (2021). COVID-19 and education: The lingering effects of unfinished learning. McKinsey & Company, 27.

Kuhfeld, M., Soland, J., Tarasawa, B., Johnson, A., Ruzek, E., & Liu, J. (2020). Projecting the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on academic achievement. Educational Researcher, 49(8), 549-565.

Marcotte, D. E., & Hemelt, S. W. (2008). Unscheduled school closings and student performance. Education Finance and Policy, 3(3), 316-338.

Thiery, W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C. F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., ... & Wada, Y. (2021). Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science, 374(6564), 158-160.

Wong, K. K., Shi, J., Gao, H., Zheteyeva, Y. A., Lane, K., Copeland, D., ... & Uzicanin, A. (2014). Why is school closed today? Unplanned K-12 school closures in the United States, 2011–2013. PLoS One, 9(12), e113755.

World Meteorological Organization (2015). WMO atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes (1970–2019). https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21930#.YZX3-tCZNPY