7Tropical Evaluating Satellite Tropical Cyclone Intensity Products During Rapid Intensification Events

Satellite-derived tropical cyclone (TC) intensity estimates are an important tool for forecasters worldwide. These products become even more necessary in the absence of aircraft reconnaissance and/or other in-situ data, which is the case for most storms over open oceans. From Vern Dvorak’s technique in the 1970s to the present, new and improved intensity products have been developed thanks to advances in satellite technology and coverage, science, and computational capabilities. Nowadays, a range of automated TC intensity operational and experimental products are available in near-real-time at NOAA/NESDIS, and other research centers (e.g. cooperative institutes). In addition, progress in the satellite detection of ocean surface winds (e.g. scatterometers, synthetic aperture radar, and microwave) has greatly contributed to more accurate pictures of storm intensity and structure. Despite all this progress, accurately estimating TC intensity remains a challenge due to several factors. For instance, polar-orbiting satellite refresh rate can take several hours up to a day over a TC, with limited passes missing the inner core at times. In addition, the intensity in small storms (e.g. pinhole eyes) can be underestimated due to limitations in satellite data resolution. Moreover, estimating intensity during rapid intensification (RI) remains a major challenge. This can usually be detected through a negative bias in satellite intensity estimates during RIs in comparison to operational or best-track intensities from forecast offices like the National Hurricane Center (NHC), or Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). This study seeks to evaluate the performance of different TC satellite intensity estimate products during RIs, with aims at determining whether any future improvements could be implemented in operations. For example, the evolution of “raw-T” numbers from the operational Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) product will be studied to verify if this intermediate value can be considered for other consensus TC intensity estimates, such as the experimental Satellite Consensus (SATCON) product. Initial results from these analyses will serve to discuss innovative ways to improve satellite-derived hurricane intensity estimates during RI.