Assessing the Impact of Future Warming on Idealized Quasi-Linear Convective System Characteristics

Quasi-Linear Convective Systems (QLCSs) are significant contributors to heavy precipitation events, making them paramount to regional hydrologic cycles. These systems are often accompanied by floods and severe weather phenomena such as tornadoes, large hail, and strong winds, which can have substantial socioeconomic impacts. As such, insight into how the longevity, morphology and intensity of QLCSs will change in a future, warmer climate, as well as their behavior and lifecycle, is critical for effective planning and adaptation. Here we will assess how projected changes in temperature and moisture in future convective environments will manifest themselves in future simulations of QLCSs. In particular, the Cloud Model 1 (CM1) will be used to produce idealized simulations of QLCSs. A control (CTRL) simulation and multiple perturbed simulations will be produced utilizing the well-established Weisman and Klemp idealized empirical sounding. Sensitivity tests will be done by modifying the temperature in the CTRL run and adjusting the moisture accordingly to keep relative humidity constant. Additional perturbed simulations will be produced by adding future climate deltas of temperature and moisture that are derived from an ensemble mean of climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE; SSP3-7.0). Specifically, climatological anomalies will be produced for the months of June, July, and August relative to a historical baseline period and then added to the CTRL sounding:

Perturbed input sounding = CTRL + ΔCESM-LE

ΔCESM-LE = CESM-LE_2071-2100 – CESM2-LE_1971-2000

Fundamental changes in various storm properties such as precipitation characteristics, storm lifecycle, and cold pool dynamics will be assessed and compared to the CTRL simulation. These results will provide crucial insight into the possible evolution of QLCSs in response to anthropogenic climate change and the types of changes that may emerge by the end of the century.