Keynote Speaker in Climate Linked Economics: The Impacts of Extreme Weather, Climate Change, and Developments in Science and Technology on the Future of the US Power Grid

The Impacts of Extreme Weather, Climate Change, and Developments in Science and Technology on the Future of the US Power Grid

Robert F. Brammer, Ph.D.
Adjunct Research Professor, University of Maryland
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science
Department of Finance
Fellow, American Meteorological Society

Abstract

This presentation explores the complex interactions among extreme weather, climate change, and advancements in science and technology, all of which will significantly impact the future of the U.S. power grid. In 2022, the US power generation market had a value of $1.7T, and 60% of our electricity came from burning fossil fuels, mainly coal and natural gas, which led to 25% of all US GHG emissions. Over the next 15-20 years, the grid will face increasing challenges largely due to the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events driven by climate change and the growth of demand for electric power (e.g., from electric vehicles, data centers, etc.).

These challenges will strain infrastructure, lead to costly disruptions, and necessitate significant grid modernization and resilience investments. Estimates of the cost to modernize the power grid over the next 15- 20 years range from $2T to $7T, while the US Department of Energy estimates that power outages cost the US economy $150B per year. Developments in smart grid technologies (including AI technology), climate science, and weather forecasting offer potential solutions to enhance grid reliability, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and better prepare the US population and economy for the uncertainties of a changing climate.

We will analyze the economic implications of these factors, highlighting how the U.S. power grid's position in the economy makes it a focal point for both adverse impacts and emerging business opportunities (e.g., from decarbonization, renewable energy, etc.). The presentation will also address recent legislative, regulatory, and legal developments, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, the new interconnection rules from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and litigation concerning the Clean Power Plan, which are shaping the grid's evolution. As the U.S. power grid undergoes this transformation, it will play a critical role in the nation's efforts to meet climate goals, integrate renewable energy, and ensure a stable, sustainable energy future.