SST Simulation in the UFS Seasonal Forecast

To advance NOAA’s seasonal forecasting capabilities, we conducted multi-year seasonal forecast experiments using NOAA's coupled Unified Forecast System (UFS) model, which includes the UFS Weather Model with the FV3 dynamical core and the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics package v17, the MOM6 ocean model and the CICE6 sea ice model. The baseline experiment utilized the UFS coupled model framework, featuring a 1-degree resolution mesh for the atmospheric, ocean and ice components. Notably, the simulated global sea surface temperature (SST) showed an overall positive bias.

To further investigate, we performed a series of experiments with varied parameterizations for convective clouds. We will evaluate the air-sea interaction to address the SST bias and examine the impact on the ENSO variability. Additionally, we will assess changes in ocean heat storage, ice coverage and ice thickness against observations.