Operational Validation of the UMASEP Solar Radiation Storm Model in Support of the Artemis Mission

In support of the Artemis and Moon to Mars missions, testing the UMASEP solar radiation storm model in an operational setting for accuracy and dependency is vital. Space weather, particularly radiation storms—bursts of high-energy particles that can disrupt electronics and pose risks to astronauts—presents significant challenges. Accurate forecasting of these events are essential to safeguarding mission success. In collaboration with NASA’s CCMC, M2M, and SRAG, we are rigorously testing the UMASEP model by comparing its predictions with observational data and NOAA SWPC’s historical event forecasts. This evaluation focuses on the model's skill metrics, forecast lead times, and peak flux predictions. Validating the model in an operational context is a crucial step toward its implementation in the Space Weather Forecast Office, ensuring that it meets the high standards required for the Artemis and Moon to Mars missions.