Weather and Wind Gaps Analysis for UAS and AAM Operations

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Flight Standards Service (AFS) is developing Performance Based Weather Standards (PBWS) for Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) operations. With a focus on defining weather observation and forecast data performance requirements for qualified Weather Information Providers (WIPs), the standards aim to enable operators to effectively use WIP services to support risk-based aeronautical decision making for UAS and AAM missions. Before the PBWS concept can be adopted to enable UAS and AAM weather resiliency, key gaps in weather information or weather-affected operations posing potential risks to these operations must be identified, understood, prioritized, and eventually addressed. These weather gaps exist for multiple weather phenomena, such as winds, precipitation, icing, and reduced ceilings or visibility. Unaccounted and unaddressed gaps for each of these (and other) weather conditions will inhibit aims and objectives of UAS and AAM missions to advance and scale to routine delivery of safe, efficient, networked operations of multi-vehicle, multi-operator missions across common, but varied, rural, suburban, and urban domains.

This paper summarizes a focused gap analysis project undertaken by The MITRE Corporation to identify shortfalls in wind information needed to ensure safe UAS / AAM operations, to consider opportunities to address those gaps, and to consider how to leverage these finding to assist the FAA in integrating UAS/AAM operations into the National Airspace System (NAS). The first component focused on identifying gaps in weather observation and forecast information, networks, and services. The second component used targeted microscale weather modeling to further characterize weather gaps, objectively, and to inform possible model-based mitigation (“gap-filling”) solutions. Impacts of this effort, summarized in this paper, are as follows:

• Developed a hazard-centric framework for identifying and categorizing gaps in wind-affected UAS / AAM operations which can holistically consider collective shortfalls that may inhibit optimized safety and efficiency given impactful weather. The framework can be reused for additional weather phenomena.
• Identified and demonstrated six gap categories, collectively containing over 30 individual gap statements, which summarize potential operational shortfalls for safe and efficient, wind-affected UAS / AAM operations. Together, these gaps define the shortfalls that must be addressed to ensure consistently safe and efficient UAS / AAM Beyond Visual Line Of Sight (BVLOS) operations, especially in advanced multi-vehicle / multi-operator networks planned by most Original Equipment Manufacturers’ (OEM) concepts of operations.
• Developed a weather (wind) gaps vulnerability matrix, demonstrating variable risk of unaddressed, identified weather (wind) gaps given range of UAS / AAM operations that differ by mission and operating domain. The gaps vulnerability matrix may help inform FAA Safety Risk Management activities for ensured safety of weather (wind) – affected UAS / AAM operations.
• Documented shortfalls and missing components that must be addressed for the current PBWS, used to qualify third-party WIP data, to be ‘operationalized’ for UAS / AAM operators to achieve equivalent levels of safety as part of overall mitigations supporting BVLOS declared performance limitations. These findings will help the FAA evolve PBWS content, concept, and priorities for operationalization to meet the needs of UAS, AAM missions and services.
• Utilized urban microscale weather modeling data and demonstration forecasts to (a) confirm the significance of gaps of inefficient wind observation / forecast data availability and accuracy and potentially insufficient vehicle, Pilot In Command (PIC), or network hazard mitigations associated with unexpected changes in wind conditions and (b) demonstrate the potential utility of microscale weather forecasts and translated hazard products to help mitigate these gaps. The FAA can utilize these findings to consider how advanced weather modeling services may help evaluate proposals for weather (wind)-affected BVLOS operations and the efficacy of intended mitigations in support of declared performance limitations and to determine how effective future, proposed operations, including this technology as part of mitigations, may satisfy safety/risk performance limitations.

NOTICE

This work was produced for the U.S. Government under Contract 693KA8-22-C-00001 and is subject to Federal Aviation Administration Acquisition Management System Clause 3.5-13, Rights In Data-General, Alt. III and Alt. IV (Oct. 1996).

The contents of this document reflect the views of the author and The MITRE Corporation and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or the Department of Transportation (DOT). Neither the FAA nor the DOT makes any warranty or guarantee, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of these views.

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