Quantifying the Risk of Hurricane Threats to Vulnerable Populations

Impact-based decision support services (IDSS) has been a focus of the National Weather Service to help build a Weather-Ready Nation. The new Probabilistic IDSS roadmap highlights the need to understand how impacts overlap with vulnerable populations, who are more negatively affected by extreme weather. The hurricane community needs to better understand what aspects of a storm produce high impacts, and how such hurricanes impact vulnerable populations. A more holistic understanding of impacts will help reduce damages and fatalities from hurricanes. To better understand what aspects of hurricanes cause high impacts, a logistic regression of storms from 2008-2021 determined three thresholds of the most impactful storms: a future intensity of at least 70 mph (a high-end tropical storm), a forecast storm surge of at least 6 feet, and a maximum RI probability of at least 30%. To better understand how impactful storms overlay with vulnerable populations, we created maps intersecting hurricane and social vulnerability data, allowing us to determine where vulnerable populations overlap with impactful hurricane hazards. Our findings also suggest flooding risks should be considered when connecting vulnerability and hurricane impacts.