Modernizing NOAA's Extreme Precipitation Guidance for High-Hazard Infrastructure in a Changing Climate: Updating Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation Using State-of-the-Science Recommendations

With recent Congressional support, NOAA has been authorized to study, develop, and operationalize updated probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates to guide the safe construction and operation of the nation’s high-hazard infrastructure.

NOAA's first action under this authorization was to gather expert consensus on state-of-the-science informed recommendations for the modernization of PMP by sponsoring a National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) study. The NASEM published the public report and set of recommendations in June 2024. NOAA is presently using these recommendations to guide an implementation strategy to achieve the development of sound, innovative PMP estimates based on advanced understanding of the US extreme precipitation climatology that meet the needs of current and future high-hazard infrastructure risk management.

This presentation will provide an overview of NOAA’s planning and steps to modernize PMP, highlighting both innovative science and research endeavors underway, as well as a strategy for intentional and inclusive partner engagement. In this presentation and going forward, NOAA welcomes feedback from the broader flood risk-interested communities on sector-specific considerations and priorities.