Advancing the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Priorities and Future Development

Further improvements have been made following the initial operational capability (IOC) of the Hurricane Forecast and Analysis System (HAFSv1). HAFSv2 was implemented in operation on July 16, 2024. HAFS is planned to undergo annual upgrades, which will incorporate emerging science and technology, introduce new capabilities, and address issues identified from previous versions. Targeting the next model upgrades, parallel experiments with upgraded configurations will be conducted in real-time each year for Atlantic hurricanes under the auspices of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP). These real-time configurations will serve as baselines for the next upgrades.

In this study, the current and planned research activities, and the research-to-operation (R2O) plans for future HAFS developments will be presented along with the HFIP real-time demonstration experiments. The HAFS development priorities will be discussed based on the emerging needs from HFIP and stakeholders. It is anticipated that there will be interactions and collaborations between NOAA’s research labs and centers to accelerate the transition of research and development capabilities into future operational HAFS implementations.