Soil Moisture Data Value Study Sensitivity Analysis in the Upper Missouri River Basin

Soil moisture is a useful metric in monitoring for drought conditions especially in agricultural environments. This is because crops use soil moisture to grow and develop into healthy plants. The challenge with monitoring soil moisture is balancing the need for in-situ measurements with the expense of installing and maintaining stations. This study aims to quantify the accuracy of soil moisture prediction in the Upper Missouri River Basin. It will compare the accuracy between the existing basin network of stations to the stations being installed through the Plains Snow and Soil Moisture Monitoring Network. Using downscaled NLDAS data pixels to represent each station. Regression Kriging predictions were made for the existing and future network stations. These predictions are compared to the original NLDAS dataset to determine the skill of the prediction for both networks using the Heidke Skill Score. To determine the economic benefit of adding these stations Livestock Forage Payments were calculated for agricultural producers in the basin based off the existing and future basin density. This shows how adding additional soil moisture stations to the basin translates to additional assistance to vulnerable producers.