Recent Performance and Ongoing Challenges Associated with Forecasting Extreme Maritime Wind Hazards at the Ocean Prediction Center

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Ocean Prediction Center (NCEP/OPC) provides marine weather warnings and forecasts for much of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans in support of its mission to protect lives and property and enhance livelihoods at sea. Midlatitude extratropical cyclones within OPC’s areas of responsibility routinely generate extreme winds and large waves, among other hazards, that endanger the safety of life at sea. In fact, the OPC typically sees roughly 80 extratropical, hurricane-force wind events across the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins each year.

For several years, the OPC has tracked the performance of 48-h, 72-h, and 96-h forecasts for extratropical cyclones and their associated wind hazard warnings. A review of recent performance for Gale, Storm, and Hurricane-Force wind warnings in OPC’s areas of responsibility will be provided. Additionally, preliminary insights on meteorological, oceanic, and/or climatological factors that limit predictability will also be presented.