Integrating Prediction of Precipitation and Hydrology for Early Actions (InPRHA): A new program of the WMO to support early flood and multi-hazard warnings globally

Our rapidly changing world faces increasing challenges, with international flood records shattering and many countries experiencing recurring, catastrophic flooding events. Cutting-edge science and technology have enhanced our ability to predict and model rainfall and runoff pathways, yet predicting and preparing for floods remains a persistent challenge. The inherent uncertainty of flood forecasts, influenced by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and insufficient real-time data, and a fast-changing climate are sometimes combined with communication breakdowns and delayed actions even when floods are accurately forecasted.

In this presentation, we will summarize the purpose and plans for a new project in WMO's World Weather Research Programme, Integrating Prediction of Precipitation and Hydrology for Early Actions (InPRHA). The goal of this project is to advance transdisciplinary research and knowledge about the development of multi-hazard systems for early flood warning, that incorporate an integration of hydrology and meteorology, and that are informed by social science approaches to identifying user needs for data and information delivery and communication. It further seeks to enhance socio-hydrometeorology through dynamic interactions between weather, water, people and citizen science. This project will focus on time scales of minutes to days. The project will run through 2028, with the possibility of an extension of another 5 years.

The integrated precipitation-hydrology prediction problem builds on the goals of the WMO Vision and Strategy for Hydrology and its associated plan of Action to ensure that “nobody is surprised by a flood” and that communities are prepared for flooding events. InPRHA will be fully in line with the 2021 WMO Water Declaration, which, in support of the global water agenda and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, acknowledges the central role of the water cycle and hydrology in the water-climate-weather continuum.

This project brings together a diverse community of researchers, operational forecasters, and end-users to ensure that scientific information is communicated in the best possible way and used to reduce the impacts on society, particularly the most vulnerable, despite forecasting uncertainty. Research themes for the project will address emerging technologies, transdisciplinary synergies, research to operations, hydrometeorological forecasting challenges, and uncertainties throughout the value chain. Importantly, the project will address perceptions and actions for flood risk alongside the socio-economic, cultural and environmental challenges along the early warning value chain – from communicating impacts from multi-hazards, to addressing the range of end users, incorporating local and indigenous knowledge systems, and identifying the policy frameworks and behavioral interventions to support community flood resilience.

This presentation will provide an overview of the research themes and questions, objectives, and intended outcomes and deliverables, as well as the goals for anticipated partnerships and collaboration with the international research community.