Comparing Alternative Base Glider Distributions for Collecting Observations Under Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes

Simulation experiments are used to evaluate alternative base glider distributions for intercepting tropical storms over year-long hurricane seasons in the Gulf of Mexico. Simulated year-long deployments of sixteen gliders over 2017-2021, starting gliders in their base distribution in May of each year. Experiments evaluated seven alternatives of the base distribution, where the gliders tried to remain near their base location under the influence of simulated ocean currents. A second set of experiments added an optional response behavior triggered by a National Hurricane Center prediction that a storm would exceed the minimal tropical storm strength within the Gulf of Mexico. If no storms of this strength were present, the gliders would begin to return to their base distribution. Experimental alternatives were scored every six hours, with the total score summed over the entire swarm. The scores were based on each glider’s proximity to the observed locations of storms at that time, scoring 1 if the storm’s eye crossed the glider and 0 if the separation was 100km or more. While different configurations might have excelled for one storm or season, overall rankings quantified the configurations that were best overall. These findings offer insight for planning future glider deployments to support hurricane season forecasts.