A Climatology of Tornado Warning Skill in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Forecasts of tornadoes in landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) tend to be less skillful at all lead times compared to those in non-TC environments. Specifically, TC tornado warnings are characterized by a greater number of false alarms relative to hits when compared to non-TC tornadoes. However, previous studies have examined warning skill for a small number of TCs, which may not be representative of TC tornado warning skill in general. Indeed, there exists non-trivial variability in TC tornado warning skill in past work. This study presents the first climatology of tornado warning skill, and the radar and lightning characteristics of the associated tornadic mesocyclones for all TCs from 2011–2023. Preliminary results suggest that warning skill does not vary as a function of previously identified factors including time of day, as well as distance from the radar or TC. Moreover, hits tend to be associated with stronger low-level rotation and convergence than misses.