Quantifying Extratropical Transition of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in the OPC Domain

Tropical hurricanes pose significant threats to the economy, both directly through damage and indirectly by disrupting maritime operations, even when they do not make landfall. The Western Atlantic, a critical region within the broader Atlantic Ocean, is heavily trafficked by commercial vessels, contributing substantially to the economy of the United States. The responsibility of Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) forecasters to protect life and property at sea necessitates a profound understanding of tropical cyclones (TCs) and their behavior. As these storms undergo transitions into extratropical cyclones, they can present complex and rapidly changing conditions that challenge mariners in their efforts to plan and navigate safely. Understanding these transitions and the evolving characteristics of TCs is vital for enhancing the accuracy of hazard assessments.

In this research, we present an in-depth examination of the frequency of recurving tropical cyclones within the OPC domain. By leveraging best track data from the National Hurricane Center, spanning five decades from 1973 to 2023, our study delves into the historical patterns of TCs that have transitioned into the OPC's jurisdiction. Our methodology includes a comprehensive analysis of the storm tracks from a statistical point of view. The findings of this research provide valuable insights into the frequency and impacts of TCs as they recurve into the OPC domain. By understanding these patterns, we aim to enhance the expertise of the OPC, enabling more accurate forecasts that are crucial for safeguarding maritime operations.