NOAA’s Space Weather Next Program: Analysis of Benefits

As the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25 approaches, we see increasing reports of space weather events including solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms. Extreme occurrences of these events have the potential for high consequence effects on technology, critical infrastructure, and national security, which can result in significant economic impacts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the nation’s authoritative source for space weather data and services. To provide the observations needed to support operational space weather monitoring, forecasting, and alerts from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), NOAA formed the Office of Space Weather Observations (SWO) within the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). SWO is implementing the next generation space weather observing system, Space Weather Next (SW Next) program, to provide continuity for critical space weather observations and enhancements beyond current capabilities that improve space weather prediction.

As part of the formulation for SW Next, NOAA is conducting a detailed study to identify the economic and societal benefits that result from the planned SW Next observations. Economic benefits are derived from avoiding the negative impacts that space weather can cause to technology and critical infrastructure like the power grid, aviation industry, satellite assets and services, and precision timing and navigation (PNT) applications. NOAA aims to achieve this through the availability of timely and accurate space weather information and services. The analysis consists of the identification of value chains that trace how SW Next observations feed into forecast and nowcast products that the end users utilize in their decision processes to mitigate space weather impacts. These value chains are developed through extensive engagement with subject matter experts and decision makers to understand how space weather information can meet their needs and to what extent societal and economic outcomes can be improved by SW Next observations.