Alaskan Climate Resilience: Understanding Social and Climate Vulnerabilities through 2100

Alaskans face a wide set of challenges as a result of the state’s variable climate, limited infrastructure, and social vulnerabilities. Many locations across the state experience wind chills below -50° C in the winter while facing wildfires in the summer months. The sparse road network in Alaska results in many areas only being accessible by boat or plane, so having an understanding of the present and future impacts from climate change is important for many people’s well-being. With increasing concern of the impacts that climate change will have on local communities, tribes and those with inadequate housing, everyone needs access to information that will enable then to make critical decisions for the future health, safety, and sustainability of their population.

This project utilizes the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Social Vulnerability Index and the University of South Carolina Hazards Vulnerability & Resilience Institute (HVRI) Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI®) to analyze climate risk for the state of Alaska through the year 2100. With the utilization of high-resolution CMIP6 climate scenarios, as well as CDC and HVRI social vulnerability data, the study aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of future climate-related risks at a broad scale. Given the already extreme climate conditions that occur over Alaska, evaluating meteorological phenomena such as record temperatures, high winds, and heavy precipitation will be helpful in determining both spatial and temporal changes in the state’s climate. The use of these variables, in conjunction with social vulnerability index data, will allow us to locate areas of higher climate risk. The results of this study can be beneficial to local communities working towards mitigation and subsistence strategies necessary for the future safety of people residing there. With these results, government agencies can further support the communities they serve by engaging with local leaders and the general public in the form of education/literacy sessions, as well as providing tools and resources that can be used to help mitigate the impacts of future significant weather and climate events.