NWS Tests Procedures, Plans, and Back-up Capability with New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) Exercise

The National Weather Service (NWS) Central Region New Madrid Earthquake Exercise, a two-day event with both a functional and tabletop exercise, served as an important opportunity to enhance our agency’s preparedness and response capabilities in the face of a potential high-end NMSZ earthquake. The potential impact zone due to earthquake activity in NMSZ comprises eight states: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has projected that for an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 to 8.0, the probability of occurrence is approximately 7-10% over the next 50 years. For a quake of 6.0 to 7.0, the probability is 28-46% over the next 50 years. If a magnitude 7.7 occurred in the NMSZ, there could be $50-$80 billion dollars in direct losses alone, not including economic losses. A mass casualty event would be likely with the potential for hundreds or thousands of injuries and many more left with uninhabitable homes.

A 40+ person working group from the field developed a comprehensive, region-wide continuity-of-operations exercise that simulated the NWS response to a high-end NMSZ earthquake. The NWS simulated a Level 1 activation and initiated a Regional Action Plan. During the exercise, NWS field offices responded to simulated evacuations and communications failures at multiple offices. The Central Region unified Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP) was activated to test backup capabilities and explore mutual aid options to meet the forecast mission and ever-increasing Impact-Based Decision Support Service (IDSS) needs in the face of scenarios that simulated additional strain on offices’ resources.

The After Action Report that was compiled following the exercise and tabletop yielded a number of best practices, gaps, and recommendations for improvement in the areas of NWS backup capabilities and communication, employee well being, and enhanced IDSS. One of the biggest strengths involved proactive and quick response efforts. Offices anticipated potential areas of concern and need, then acted upon them in advance of some of the exercise injects. Other best practices included using supplemental staffing, flexible staffing models, interoffice support, and non-traditional communication methods. However, there were also challenges for some offices providing service backup related to domain issues, accessing applications and tools, and a lack of familiarity. There were identified gaps in the ability to provide hydrologic IDSS, and it was also recognized that the workload for involved offices would significantly stretch resources. Employees in the impact zone, as well as those with friends/family in impacted areas, would experience significant stress. It is imperative that every effort is made to consider the physical and mental well-being of employees who would be impacted in a critical event, and that resources that help with preparedness and building resiliency continue to be developed and supported.