Urban Heat Resilience: Projecting Heatwaves and Quantifying Cooling Strategies in 50 Major U.S. Cities

Heatwaves and urban heat islands (UHIs) present significant challenges to public health, environmental sustainability, and urban livability, particularly in densely populated cities. This study builds on our previous research that assessed the impacts of heatwaves in major US cities by integrating an analysis of UHI effects and cooling strategies across 50 of the most populated urban areas in the United States. Initially, we investigate the spatiotemporal trends in heatwave intensity, frequency, and duration, projecting future scenarios under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) through the end of the 21st century. Our findings indicate a significant increase in heatwave occurrences, with some cities potentially facing up to 8 times more heatwave days annually by 2100, especially under high-emission scenarios. Expanding on these insights, we explore the cooling effects of natural entities such as urban parks, forests, and water bodies within these urban areas. Using machine learning and deep learning techniques, we cluster different areas within cities based on surrounding features like land use, land cover, and elevation to quantify the cooling capacities of these natural entities. This approach allows us to identify the most effective cooling strategies tailored to specific urban environments. The study emphasizes the critical role of strategic urban planning and green infrastructure in mitigating heat stress, particularly in cities most vulnerable to escalating heatwave intensities. Our research provides a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between heatwaves, UHIs, and urban cooling strategies, offering valuable insights for enhancing urban resilience and sustainability in the face of a warming climate.