Advances in US Models' Hurricane Predictions

Tropical cyclone (TC) predictions in the North Atlantic basin performed by the numerical models developed in the United States have improved over the past five years along with the major model upgrades, including the dynamical core. Since 2019, various FV3 (Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core)-based models, including National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System (GFS), newly operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), and research-oriented Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD), have consistently demonstrated improved hurricane forecasts, relative to the previous generation of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational and research models. Besides showing the nation-wide progress that has been made in the past 5 years, TC forecasts in the new GFDL SHiELD 6.5-km flagship configuration (C1536) will also be presented. The improvements and the challenges during model development will be discussed.