Forecasting for Wind and Solar Assets in Marine Environments with Complex Terrain

Avangrid, a leading sustainable energy company, is dedicated to transitioning America to a clean energy future. Our team of real-time trading meteorologists in Portland, OR, plays a crucial role by providing hourly forecasts for wind and solar assets in the Columbia Basin. These forecasts are essential for energy traders who depend on accurate data for informed decision-making.
Our forecasting efforts face significant challenges due to the local geography and topography. Synoptic systems from the Pacific, influenced by the coast, two mountain ranges, and a valley within a short distance, create unique wind patterns in the Columbia River Gorge, adding complexity. Additionally, low-resolution models and radar gaps in Oregon hinder accuracy. Other challenges include wildfires, extreme heat, icing, and high wind cutout speeds.
Inaccurate forecasts can lead to substantial financial repercussions. Real-time traders may need to buy emergency power to balance the grid or sell excess power at a loss. Day-ahead traders rely on forecasts to create contracts, and inaccuracies can negatively impact financial outcomes for departments like Risk Management.
To overcome these challenges, we utilize observed data, surface weather stations, satellite imagery, pressure gradient tools, and high-resolution models like WRF. Local knowledge and pattern recognition also enhance forecast accuracy. Effective communication with traders ensures they have the most current information.
Meteorologists in renewable energy play vital roles in both developmental and operational meteorology, creating forecasts and determining sites for new assets. A degree in meteorology, with electives in renewable energy and local knowledge, is essential. As renewable energy advances, the demand for meteorologists in this field will increase, underscoring their importance in operations.