The Physics of Heat Extremes in Honduras in Current Climates and a Warmer One

In this project, we investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of Heat Extremes in Honduras using reanalysis data and atmospheric model simulations. We compared these datasets in current and in a future climate using composite analyses. Like many countries in Central America, Honduras is a very underdeveloped country and is not prepared for handling climate change and is a very understudied region when it comes to extreme weather events. We find that during the wet season of Honduras (May-October), heat extremes in the 90th percentile are strongly influenced by Rossby/Planetary waves with meridional components and thermodynamically driven by vertical diffusion/sensible heating. The impacts they have on land lead to soil moisture depletion which then enhances sensible heating to the atmosphere. The difference between the anomalies of the various terms we used in the control simulation vs the warming simulation is minimal, but when taking into account the heat index, it is a major difference that projects devastating conditions.