Surviving the Demise of the Marine Stratus Forecast System

The Policy and Requirements Branch (ANG-C64) of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Weather Division (AWD) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have been jointly leading efforts to address weather-related air traffic delays at San Francisco International Airport (SFO). The combination of seasonal low cloud ceilings and high traffic demand results in SFO historically being among the most delayed airport in the NAS.

Through 2021, the legacy Marine Stratus Forecast System (MSFS) was a critical source of ceiling information available to traffic managers and meteorologists. The demise of this system left a gap in weather information available to decision-makers in the SFO airspace. The AWD, along with the NWS and other aviation weather partners, have several efforts in place to address this gap and ensure future requirements meet existing needs.

This presentation will describe recent efforts with respect to needs and gaps in weather information available to decision-makers at SFO. Included in the presentation will be a look at the current problem regarding weather and traffic demand at SFO, results of a recent user needs and shortfall analysis as well as an MSFS benefit analysis, current efforts by the NWS to meet weather needs and SFO, and a discussion on current capabilities as well as potential requirements for future capabilities.