15R2O Improvements of Severe Weather Prediction - A Proxy of Next Generation Satellite Sounding Observations

Polar satellite infrared and microwave radiance measurements are combined with geostationary satellite infrared radiance measurements to produce temperature, moisture, and wind sounding observations. These next generation satellite proxy data are assimilated into a high- resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured like NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, to demonstrate improvements in the nowcasting and short-term (hourly) forecasting of severe convective weather events (i.e., tornadoes, flash flooding, hail, and extreme winds). These are used to define and demonstrate data processing and product application algorithms being designed for next-generation satellite measurements. This paper provides an overview of the most recently enhanced proxy data fusion/profile-retrieval system and validation results obtained through the utilization of profile retrievals and nowcast/forecast products through comparisons with Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe storm reports daily conventional upper air radiosonde and Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) observations, special field experiment dropsonde and active remote sensing profile measurements, and subjective evaluations by operational NOAA forecasters participating in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT). Plans are to replace the proxy data with actual next-generation polar and geostationary satellite measurements (e.g., Metop-SG and MTG), as they become available, to evaluate their impact on improving severe convective weather forecasts.