National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Current Status and Future Upgrades

The National Weather Service (NWS) National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) Program supports a set of operational Air Quality/Atmospheric Composition models to provide the U.S. with ozone, fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5), smoke and dust forecast guidance with reliability and actionable timeliness to prevent or mitigate adverse effects to people at risk. The NAQFC closely collaborates with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state and local AQ agencies through various communication channels including emails, regular meetings, and an annual AQ forecasters focus group workshop.

In May 2024, one of the NAQFC models, the NWS/NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) regional Air Quality Model (AQM), was upgraded substantially. The enhancements included the online coupling of the limited-area atmospheric model with GFS (Global Forecast System)-like configurations and an EPA/CMAQ (The Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling)-based chemistry model within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and inclusion of Regional hourly Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Emissions (RAVE)-based biomass burning missions to improve PM2.5 forecasts during wildfire events. In the next few years, AQ forecast capabilities will be further enhanced through both global and regional modeling systems. This presentation will provide an overview of NAQFC and planned enhancements for the future.