A case study of inclusive and participatory research: climate impacts on coastal systems and ways that local communities are adapting

Coral reefs are highly important ecosystems providing habitat for biodiverse marine life and numerous benefits for humans like fishing, diving, and coastal protection from storms. However reefs face immense risks from climate change since coral can only survive in a very narrow range of temperatures. To date, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate models have aided global discussions on possible policy responses to adapt to change at the global level, but tailored climate projections at a useful scale for environmental managers and political leaders are often prohibitively expensive to produce. Likewise, communities where coral reefs thrive are often the subjects of research, but are rarely invited to partner in research in ways where findings can be used to inform a more sustainable management system for coastal resources. Our research addresses these problems by presenting a novel type of collaborative, participatory research that works closely with people who make their living on coral reefs like fishermen and dive boat operators. Our research integrates climate metrics from the National Science Foundation (NSF) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE), to predict what will happen to the coral ecosystem, and use those outputs to see how people who depend on coral reefs for their income can adapt to changes. The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary is one of the most visited marine sanctuaries in the world, and America’s largest coral reef. We deployed novel techniques to engage people, like guided group discussions with the aid of pictures, or participant observation and volunteering efforts to build trust and relationships in the community where we conducted our research. Our research found that people who depend on reefs are adapting, stewarding reefs through climate impacts of the future, but is this the future we want? We found evidence that historical commercial lobster and finfish fisheries, a key part of Florida cultural identity, are shifting northward. People who have worked in the dive industry running tours for 30 years are switching to Uber or other non-reef related livelihoods. We also found evidence of a “Moon Shot,” or an unprecedented scientific effort to restore reefs in a more disease and heat resilient way using emerging technologies in hopes that these efforts can stop the dramatic loss of reefs. Findings from our research can inform future research design, where people who live in areas dependent on climate-vulnerable systems can be partnered with to ensure findings are used in a way to impact decision-making.