Incorporating Principles of Environmental Justice into Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations, a Climate and Flood Adaptation Strategy

Some of the most severe impacts of climate change are expected through the twin hydrologic stressors of flooding and drought, the impacts of which are most acute in frontline communities. Dams and reservoirs are critical infrastructure elements used to manage both flood risk and water supply, in addition to providing renewable hydroelectric power and environmental benefits. However, new dams are costly and, in many areas, no longer feasible.

One proposed climate adaptation tool is Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO). Under FIRO, improved forecasts can provide reservoir operators greater flexibility. With sufficient forecast skill, water can be strategically pre-released ahead of storms, reducing flood risk and allowing operators to store more water throughout the wet season. Over the past five years, researchers at academic institutions, state and federal agencies, and local water districts, have assessed the viability of FIRO at several pilot sites in California, demonstrating FIRO’s potential to reduce flood risk and increase water supply reliability by up to 20%.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) is currently screening sites for FIRO viability assessments to expand FIRO across the country. However, this screening process relies mainly on technical considerations such as forecast skill and hydrology. There has been no assessment of the potential benefits of FIRO to frontline communities or how such benefits might be realized. In this project we conduct this assessment.

First, we survey partners from the FIRO assessment from Yuba Water Agency to understand their engagement with frontline communities. Second, we develop a screening methodology based on the Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool (CEJST) to identify communities where benefits are most likely to accrue to frontline populations. Third, we identify community-based organizations at sites in California and facilitate their participation in FIRO viability assessments. Fourth, we plan to apply the CEJST-based screening methodology in the USACE South Atlantic Division and transfer the engagement methods developed at the California sites to pilot sites in the Southeast. Finally, we apply a co-produced evaluation framework throughout the project, developing metrics for a community of practice, to apply principles of environmental justice to water infrastructure climate adaptation projects.

The project builds upon an existing large-scale USACE initiative, specifically broadening the scope to consider climate change and climate impacts on frontline communities. The FIRO program is collaborative in nature, with the viability assessments for each reservoir being led by local water agencies who represent community interests. This project will strengthen the ties of water managers to frontline communities by working directly with community-based environmental and water justice organizations. In our work we initiate and strengthen partnerships between local water agencies and community-based organizations. The development of water justice screening tools and equity-weighted metrics, such as equity-weighted expected annual damages, could be applied to climate adaptation projects more broadly. Developing such metrics within the framework of a federal project increases the likelihood of wide-scale adoption beyond this project.