Simulating the Parent Thunderstorms of Extreme Lightning Events using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Recent advances in observations have allowed us to detect lightning events that challenge our understanding of what lightning is capable of. Our prior studies of the most intense lightning termed “superbolts,” lightning “megaflashes” whose horizontal extents could cover entire nations, “lightning-dense” thunderstorms that contain as much lightning as the largest Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in a modest area, and rare lightning events such as cloud top discharges (starters, jets, and gigantic jets), reveal that exceptional lightning is caused by thunderstorms developing into unique kinematic, microphysical, and electrical states. This allows only certain thunderstorms to produce extreme lightning events – and often to keep producing them over long periods.

Meteorological observations of the thunderstorms responsible for extreme lightning events – particularly those that occur in remote locations – are inadequate for understanding their enabling factors. To address this shortcoming, we simulate a collection of exceptional thunderstorms using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a storm electrification package (WRF_ELEC). Simulated outputs are compared to observations, and implications for extreme lightning production are discussed.