Climate-Driven Drought-to-Pluvial Transitions: A CMIP6 Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Dynamics and ENSO Interactions

Climate change has had a profound impact on the occurrence and severity of droughts and pluvial floods throughout historical periods, presenting significant risks to both humanity and the natural environment. With global warming, there is an alarming increase in the duration and frequency of events where droughts and floods happen one after the other closely. However, we still don’t fully understand how much and in what ways climate change will affect these transition events, drought-to-pluvial flood and pluvial flood-to-drought events. Here, we estimate the occurrence of transition events by analyzing observational data and simulated data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under different emission scenarios. Then, we apply methodological frameworks to characterize spatial-temporal dynamics of drought and pluvial transition events associated with different El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and soil moisture. Our study is expected to expand the understanding of physical mechanisms causing drought-pluvial volatility and enhance the predictive capabilities for compound events in future climate scenarios.