A Path from Observations, to Models, to Climate Change Projections, to Initialized Earth System Predictability

Participation in observational field studies not only provides the opportunity to experience in person the weather and climate in different locales, but also is an education in all the factors involved with collecting observed data. That knowledge can be fruitfully applied in subsequent analyses of observed data, and is useful in comparing observations with model output to provide insights into the workings of the climate system as well as the processes and errors in the models. The models can then be applied to future climate projections since such models are the only tools we have to give us an indication of what climate change may be like later in the century. But of possibly greater urgency is what human societies will have to adapt to over the next ten years or so. For this compelling societal need, the climate science community must be able to credibly provide predictions of the time evolution of regional climate from the next season to the next ten years. This is a tremendous scientific and intellectual challenge, and the stakes are high. The climate science community is in a crucial position to make a significant contribution to human outcomes over the next decade.