Demonstrating New Tools to Foster and Expedite Standardized, Continental-scale Hydrologic Evaluation

Continental-scale hydrologic forecasts provide important information to guide critical water management activities. Given the public benefits and recent federal investments, multiple research initiatives are currently underway to further advance hydrologic forecasting capabilities. While the magnitude of research is positive, it also creates a challenge to objectively and consistently measure the degrees of forecast improvement that can be expected from new developments and, in turn, judge which developments should be candidates for transition into the operational forecast system. The challenge is even greater as we aim to improve continental scale forecasts (i.e. thousands to millions of locations). As part of efforts to address these challenges, the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) launched the development of a hydrologic model/forecast evaluation system. The system, referred to as Tools for Exploratory Evaluation in Hydrologic Research (TEEHR), aims to significantly facilitate continental-scale hydrologic model/forecast evaluation and foster standardized evaluation in collaboration with the CIROH Hydrologic Prediction Testbed (CHPT). Specific design priorities of TEEHR include 1) easy integration into research workflows, 2) use of modern and efficient data structures and computing platforms, 3) rapid execution of large-domain/large-sample evaluations, 4) simplified exploration of performance trends and potential drivers (e.g., climate, time period, regulation, and basin characteristics), 5) inclusion of common and emergent evaluation methods (e.g., error statistics, skill scores, categorical metrics, hydrologic signatures, uncertainty quantification, and graphical methods), and 6) open source and community-extensible development. This presentation introduces key features of TEEHR, presents an example use case, and highlights some ideas, challenges, and benefits associated with defining evaluation standards to advance continental-scale hydrologic forecasting capabilities.