Multiscale Forecasting of High-Impact Weather: Current Status and Future Challenges

Improving the forecasting and communication of weather hazards such as urban floods and extreme winds has been recognized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a priority for international research. The WMO’s HIWeather project has provided a framework to address global challenges and accelerate progress on integrated scientific and social solutions. Through the activities of the HIWeather working group for the Multiscale Hazard Forecasting Theme, a review of the primary challenges in the context of the warning value chain has been completed. Four key challenges were identified: early information to enable preparation; early information to enable early action; precise information to enable targeted response; and information on the nature of the threat. To address these challenges, continued improvements in observations; multiscale data assimilation; multiscale probabilistic forecasting; and multiscale coupled hazard modeling are required. This presentation will highlight progress and future directions in these areas, with less emphasis on technical details and more emphasis on their roles in the warning process.