Forecasts in Action: How Emergency Managers use Decision Thresholds and NWS Forecasts in their Operations

It is well understood that Emergency Managers (EMs) are some of the most critical end-users of National Weather Service (NWS) forecast information and that EMs often depend on NWS forecasts for their operational decision-making. It is less well understood exactly what forecast information EMs use, as well as how that information is used in their operational decision-making. This understanding is critical to enhance the support NWS forecasters provide to their EM partners. Using a nationwide, quarterly survey of EMs fielded by the University of Oklahoma’s Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, we investigate whether or not EMs generally have and use forecast-based thresholds in their decision-making processes. This presentation will explore how EMs use these thresholds, how the thresholds came to be, what information they get from NWS forecasters about these thresholds, and what it means for the future of Impact-based Decision Support Services between forecasters and EMs.