Quantifying Annual Energy Production Growth of Offshore Wind Projects Along the US East Coast

This presentation describes the growth of offshore wind not by nameplate capacity, but by the expected annual energy production (AEP). Understanding offshore wind’s contribution to energy production along the US East Coast is critical to the understanding of both grid capacity, energy pricing, and the success of the projects and developers themselves.

We have performed detailed assessments of all planned offshore wind projects in the US, covering the construction of 3200 turbines. These projects will ultimately produce more than 200,000 GWh of electricity annually, of which 70,000 GWh is expected to be delivered annually by the start of 2030. We calculate the expected AEP of these projects using a dynamic database of project owners, planned commissioning dates, and expected turbine numbers and capacity, along with long-term wind resource data from Weather Research & Forecasting model simulations.

Commentary will be made of the growth in energy production over the next ten years, separated by State and windfarm operator (as a ratio of each operator’s share in individual projects), making annual revenue estimates possible. Analysis of timeline risk, and the risks and impacts associated with expected fluctuations in energy production based on annual, monthly, and daily changes in the wind resource are also presented.

The growth of offshore wind’s share of the electricity mix in the US Northeast is presented, as is the expected timing and scale of the seasonal/diurnal fluctuations of supply from these projects. The prevalence of 2-3 hour windows with limited production are then analyzed to estimate the effectiveness of battery energy storage systems (BESS) for US east coast offshore wind projects.