Using Observed and Synthetic Tropical Cyclones to Analyze the Past and Future of Tropical Cyclone Activity in Charlotte Harbor, Florida

In 2022, Hurricane Ian made a historic landfall in Charlotte Harbor, Florida as a category four hurricane, producing significant damage across large swaths of southwest Florida. Ian was the third major hurricane to impact the region since 2004, following Charley (2004) and Irma (2017). These three events provide context for our study where we analyze the past and future of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the region. We analyze TC history in the region from 1901–2022 using observed TC best tracks and three sets of synthetic TC tracks representing the early 20^th century climate (EC, 1901–1930), present climate (PC, 1991–2020), and the late 21^st century climate, or future, climate (FC, 2071–2100). Using the observed TC tracks, we investigate patterns is Charlotte Harbor (CH) TC characteristics in 30-year intervals (1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and 1991–2020), such as local maximum intensity and seasonality. Using the synthetic tracks, we use compare the temporal and spatial distributions between the tracks of EC, PC, and FC. In our analysis of the best tracks and synthetic tracks, we will place Charley, Irma, and Ian into context of CH’s TC history and assess how the future of the region’s TC climatology may differ from its past.