Changing Characteristics of Precipitation and Drought in the Northeast U.S.

Winter temperature and precipitation changes have been an area of interest amidst climate change, particularly in areas where snow accumulation is of great importance. In the United States, this study has largely focused on the West, with far less research addressing changes in the Northeastern U.S., where ecosystem function, agriculture, land use, water supply, and the $150 billion outdoor recreation industry are particularly vulnerable to climate shifts and extreme weather events. Winter temperatures in the Northeast have warmed three times faster than summer, leading to warmer late-winter and early-spring temperatures creating a shorter snow season. Using data from the Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) from the NOAA Regional Climate Centers and the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Drought Risk Atlas (DRA), recent observational trends in drought, precipitation, and snow in the Northeast were evaluated. The results showed winter, spring, and summer precipitation has increased in recent decades across the region, while snowfall has decreased in some areas over the last 30 to 40 years. More winter rain events, especially rain-on-snow events, along with warmer temperatures, have led to less early snowfall, lower snow density and extent, which contributed to earlier snowmelt. Days with greater precipitation amounts are increasing throughout the Northeast, while the frequency of dry weeks is decreasing in some areas, though this metric is highly variable depending on the temporal scale. Communities and resource managers are seeking information like this to help inform decisions as they adapt to and plan for the changes in precipitation dynamics. Although the patterns across the landscape are complex, the findings underscore the need to incorporate changing characteristics of precipitation and drought into adaptive management strategies for the region’s ecosystems, agriculture, and outdoor recreation industries.