Navigating Risks: ENSO, Climate Trends, and Their Impact on the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal, a critical global trade route, is increasingly susceptible to dual threats of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate change. This study investigates the compounded impacts of ENSO events and recent decadal trends on Lake Gatun—the lifeblood of the Panama Canal's operations. Through a comprehensive analysis using historical precipitation data, ENSO indices, and Lake Gatun water levels, results indicate a significant relationship between ENSO phases and fluctuations in water levels alongside recent trends in water levels. This research highlights the critical importance of leveraging historical meteorological and hydrological data to mitigate the risks posed by seasonal variations and climate change to this crucial artery of global commerce.