Mobile Emergency Communication for Effective Wildfire Evacuation: Exploring Methodological Approaches

Problem: There is no available literature that explores how to evaluate the impacts of Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) messages on wildfire evacuation. Given this gap, this project will present an analysis of interviews conducted with experts in wildfire evacuation and emergency communication, including emergency managers from local emergency management offices in Colorado, as well as academic and professional researchers. This analysis will be used to develop a methodological approach for assessing the influence of WEA messages on wildfire evacuation. Background: The risk of wildfires to Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) communities has been increasing as climate change continues to generate extreme conditions and populations in risk-prone areas continue to grow (Bowman et al., 2020; Radeloff et al., 2018). Effective evacuation plans and preparations are needed to support population growth and the ability to communicate the hazard to those at risk. Emergency communication, specifically public alerts and warnings, play a crucial role in spreading hazard awareness and can aid in effective evacuation procedures (Mileti and Sorensen, 1990; Mileti, 2018). Wildfire evacuations have proven difficult in the WUI due not only to alert and warning issues, but also to variability in the hazard and awareness of risk. Research has supported the use of mobile device-based emergency messaging to provide the public with wildfire hazard information, allowing the public to make decisions based on the information they receive (Doermann et al., 2020). Wildfire evacuation simulations that involve alert and warning systems, and messages, can be a useful tool in better understanding the probability of different situations to occur, influencing the efficacy of specific evacuation procedures (Cova & Drews, 2024; Soga et al., 2024; Stephens et al., 2023). Much of the research surrounding wildfire evacuation simulations relates to fire behavior, traffic patterns, and protective action perception, yet few studies seek to understand the influence mobile device-based emergency messaging can have on wildfire evacuation patterns (Soga et al., 2024). Soga et al. (2024) suggests that “one important consideration [for wildfire evacuation] is when evacuees need to be notified of the evacuation warning or order which can be aided by information on how fires spread, and the operation of communication systems, which can be integrated into the evacuation simulations for a more comprehensive depiction of possible scenarios” (p. 7). Public Awareness: There is little public awareness regarding the tradeoffs between “opt-in” versus “opt-out” communication systems for public alert and warning (Bean, 2019). Opt-in systems are those in which users must sign up to receive messages, whether it is a notification through the text feature or through an application (“app”) on the device. Opt-out systems are those in which users' devices are automatically registered to receive the messages and need to turn that feature off in the settings of the device if they choose to not receive those messages. Both opt-in and opt-out approaches provide a means for emergency managers to disseminate information rapidly during an unfolding disaster; however, awareness of and trust in the systems vary (Bean & Grevstad, 2023; Steelman et al., 2015). The Marshall Fire Case: The Marshall Fire occurred December 30, 2021, in Boulder County, Colorado, destroying 1,084 homes and seven commercial properties as the fire moved through the suburbs of Superior and Louisville. The primary alerting system for the Marshall Fire was through Everbridge, a commercial opt-in alerting system; however, approximately 20% of people who had opted-in for Everbridge messages received the Marshall Fire evacuation message. This event highlighted areas for improvement using WEAs in wildfire emergency communication for future wildfire events, as recent reports from the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) software claims 90% reception of WEA messages during an emergency. However, using both systems may expand the reach of emergency messages, as there is no single alerting solution that can meet the needs of the entire population at risk. The Marshall and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Fires occurring in Boulder County, Colorado, a few months apart from each other, highlighted the differences between commercial alerting systems and government alerting systems. Specifically, the differences in ability to reach larger amounts of the community who are at risk during a wildfire, as well as the problem of alerting people not at risk. Project Approach: The aftermath of the Marshall Fire emphasized the need for continued investigation into the dynamics between wildfire spread and traffic congestion, with major consideration for how emergency alerting might have contributed a different outcome. Literature suggests that live “end to end” tests are successful in assessing the effectiveness of wildfire communication and evacuation plans, both in small communities and on a nationwide scale (Stephens et al., 2023; Sonoma County DOEM, 2024; PSHSB, 2023). Additionally, wildfire simulations have proven to be useful tools in evaluating evacuation practices and strategies in place. Incorporating both the fire behavior models to predict spread depending on conditions and traffic patterns, provides insight into potential evacuation behaviors. However, there is no available literature which explores methods for evaluating the impacts of WEA messages on wildfire evacuation. Evaluating and modeling the factors separately has contributed knowledge for each of these factors individually, providing a base for evaluating the variables together. Given this gap, the next step in this project is to conduct interviews with experts in wildfire evacuation and emergency communication, including emergency managers from local emergency management offices, as well as academic and professional researchers. Experts were interviewed to understand concerns about using WEA messages for wildfire evacuation communication and identifying potential methods for evaluating the impact those messages might have on wildfire evacuation. The questions asked addressed a variety of topics relating to the evolution of a wildfire from the disaster management and communication perspective to gain insight into the processes and procedures associated with hazard identification, emergency communication, and evacuation. Results from these interviews provide insight on the similarities and differences in wildfire response and communication between emergency management organizations, as well as outline potential methods for evaluating the impacts of WEA messages on wildfire evacuations.